Tuesday 13 December 2011

What Next - time to bury caesar




So here we are. Liberal Democrats find themselves locked into a deadly embrace with a thatcherite anti-european tory party led by that trickster David Cameron. He is determined to destroy the Lib Dems with a toxic gift of austerity and broken promises, as well as follow a stealth Thatcherite agenda which will marginalise Britain forever. The Lib Dems are trying to stick to the coalition to help the country over the next four years and hoping that the party's fortunes will revive. With the prospect of worse economic news this looks unlikely. Time for a plan B.
Clegg and Cabinet colleagues should treat this political marriage, just like a real one and in the face of the serial political infidelity of the tories move out of the happy home - ie move out of the government and cross the floor into opposition. A constructive opposition where Lib Dems would support the government in confidence motions and then flex their veto powers to obtain concessions from the government on Europe, economic growth, student tuition fees as well as getting troops out of Afghanistan in 2012.


If the Conservatives refuse to play ball, then re-open negotiations with Labour on an agenda for growth and fairness. Whilst a Lib-Dem, Labour, Green, SNP, PC and Northern Ireland anti-cuts minority government might lack a strong majority, the Rainbow coalition of the progressive centre left could be backed up by an electoral pact where the most popular anti-tory candidate could be fielded and would see an additional 28 Lib Dem MP's and 97 Labour MP's if the tories voted the government down in a confidence motion followed by an election. Perhaps such an alliance might include a genuine offer of proportional representation from the pro-PR Milliband. Time to bury caesar. Anyone got a knife?


Analysis of Election Results from a Lib-Dem-Labour-Green Party-SNP-PC Electoral Pact*
*Based on 2010 election results the following constituencies would have changed hands.
Conservative to Lib Dem (+28)
Bath
Bosworth
Bournemouth West
Bridgwater and Somerset West
Bristol North West
Broadland
Camborne and Redruth
Canterbury
Chelmsford
Colne Valley
Congleton
Cornwall South East
Devon West and Torridge
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hereford and Herefordshire South
Hexham
Montgomeryshire
Newton Abbot
Oxford West and Abingdon
Reading East
St Albans
Shrewsbury and Atcham
Tewkesbury
Truro and Falmouth
Watford
Weston-Super-Mare
Winchester
York Outer
Conservative to Labour (+97)
Aberconwy
Amber Valley
Basildon South and Thurrock East
Battersea
Bedford
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Brentford and Isleworth
Brigg and Goole
Brighton Kemptown
Broxtowe
Burton
Bury North
Calder Valley
Cannock Chase
Carlisle
Carmarthen West and Pembrokesh
Chatham and Aylesford
Chester, City of
Cleethorpes
Corby
Crawley
Crewe and Nantwich
Croydon Central
Derbyshire South
Dewsbury
Dover
Dudley South
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale
Ealing Central and Acton
Elmet and Rothwell
Enfield North
Enfield North
Erewash
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Finchley and Golders Green
Forest of Dean
Gillingham and Rainham
Gloucester
Great Yarmouth
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Hampstead and Kilburn
Harlow
Harrow East
Hastings and Rye
Hendon
High Peak
Hove
Ilford North
Ipswich
Keighley
Kingswood
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Leicestershire North West
Lincoln
Loughborough
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Northampton North
Northampton South
Norwich North
Nuneaton
Pendle
Peterborough
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Portsmouth North
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Pudsey
Reading West
Redditch
Rossendale and Darwen
Rugby
Scarborough and Whitby
Sherwood
Shipley
Somerset North East
South Ribble
Stafford
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stevenage
Stockton South
Stourbridge
Stroud
Swindon North
Swindon South
Tamworth
Telford
Thurrock
Vale of Glamorgan
Warrington South
Warwick and Leamington
Warwickshire North
Waveney
Weaver Vale
Wirral West
Wolverhampton South West
Worcester

Saturday 10 December 2011

Britain Isolated?

Not since the Suez Fiasco in 1956 has Britain become so Isolated as it is today. The perfect dream of anti-europeans in UKIP and Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party is becoming reality. Britain has finally said No to Europe. Together with the fact that the Euro in it's present form looking doomed, gives cheer to Mrs Thatcher and poor Ted Heath is probably turning in his grave. Once again Liberal Democrats have appeased the Conservative Party in the national interest.
Britain is in a minority of one against 26 other European Countries. Many people are cheering David Cameron's actions, and think them long overdue. Fewer but perhaps more insightful people are wondering what just happened, and pondering that perhaps Britain just stepped away from 50 years of trying to be at the heart of Europe.
As one European put it - Britain is free but without power. So is what has happened good for Britain? - On the face of it - it is hard to see why distancing ourselves from our major export market would be a good thing. It is difficult to see how excluding ourselves from policy making in this new eurozone europe would be advantegous.
Sure right now - the Eurozone is a basket case and still not taking the dramatic steps the markets demand. But in the long term, the new Europe of the Eurozone will eventually return to stability. Will the British of 2025 thank us for the events of this December?
In the short-term Britain seems to have fared well outside of the ERM and the EURO since 1993, and may well do so for the next five years. The doubt exists whether we can remain in the single market and even the EU without being in the Eurozone, it looks doubtful according the sabrerattling in Europe. Yet who has more to lose? Has 38 years of EC membership really helped Britain? -
Looking at Britain's Imports and Exports from and to Europe between 1970 and 2009 the facts show that while Exports to the original six EEC members - France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands has grown by 45 times since 1970, imports have soared a staggering 60 times. Whilst in 1970 Britain exported 50% more to Belgium that it Imported, by 2009 this had reversed to importing 30% more than export.
As a pro-European it seems that British membership of the common market has boosted exports but at the expense of higher import growth. Whilst in 1970 - Britain maintained a small 4% trade deficit with the EEC, that deficit soared to 29% in 2009.

As a Pro-European it galls me to say that it appears from these figures that EU membership appears to have hindered Britain.

Yet as a Pro-European - I want to see Britain at the heart of Europe, showing leadership and promoting freedom, democracy and British values such as tolerance and liberty. So much of English history has been spent promoting division in Europe and the folly of 2 world wars which started in Europe contrast sharply with the good sense of the EEC era of peace and cooperation.

When in 1923 German suffered from hyperinflation a scaring process which even now prevents Bankers in Frankfurt from printing money, British isolationism played a part in the creation of the Nazis in power in 1933. Now in 2011 we stand on the sidelines and europe again deals with crisis with Britain on the sidelines and not helping. We will come to regret our isolation.

Can Britain make up it's mind to play a full role in Europe, not to join the common market but to sell to it more than we buy from it. Could our leaders forge real alliances with democrats and make common cause against tyranny ? Doesn't look likely.

Saturday 3 December 2011

Jeremy Clarkson - Professional Buffoon and Tory Insider





Where Boris fears to tread, step forward Professional Buffoon and Tory Insider - Top Gear Presenter Jeremy Clarkson. A man unfraid of losing his £1 million BBC Salary through often illadvised remarks. Fellow presenters James May and Richard Hammond make better foils for his right wing brand of comedy than poorly paid teachers, nurses and cleaners who have been bullied into strike action by a Tory led coalition government that is seeking to rob them of their pension rights to fill a deficit created by bailing out bankers. The Bankers are probably friends of Clarkson and avid watchers of Top Gear who ruined their companies trying to earn that new Ferrari.
Clarkson is a neighbour and close friend to Tory Prime Minister Dave Cameron. He says what Cameron thinks. Perhaps Cameron secretly wishes that he could see the ring-leaders dealt with, perhaps in a smilar way he dealt with Gaddaffi. Clarkson says with his tongue firmly in his cheek that he would like to see the strikers, shot in the street in front of their families. Trade Unionists who are painfully aware of current and past government sanctioned intimidation, brutality and murder of trade unionists around the world are not laughing. I hear Clarkson has fled to China. He will be at home - China knows to deal with protest. Remember Tiananmen square. Lets hope he stays there

Beware the Nihalists?

We live in interesting times. We are surrounded by economic and social crises which have been the product of changing behaviours between generations. The doomsayers are demanding that the ordinary people sacrifice their wealth, incomes and rights to save the people. The War on terror wipped up ten years of the politics of fear, now the war on the deficit brings another round of the politics of fear. Think back, not only did the West or the Free World beat the greatested military and indeological threat in history in the form of evil empire of the USSR and Warsaw Pact, the same alliance of Britain, France America and allied nations defeat the alliance of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan.
All of the various imbalances in the world economic and financial mechanisms are easily fixable given the aspiration, morality and determination of a generation of leaders like Winston Churchill, Ernest Bevin and Anthony Eden.

We need a better do list and a unity amongst all to see the list done. Some suggestions:

1. Make sure everyone can contribute to society 2. Make the institutions like Banks and Governments serve the interests of the society. 3. Make the mechanisms like money, statistics and work serve the interests of the people rather the other way round. 4 Confront all those who undermine society through the hoarding of resources such as money& wealth.

Think back - what would Churchill have done when faced with the recent crises - would he have stood back and bemoaned his limited powers of action or would he have got on a plane and flown to Athens back in 2010 and stemmed the contagion by underwriting Greek Debt before the contagion spread to Europe. Churchill called the Second World War - the Unnecessary War , it was preventable. The events happening in our current lifetimes could easily take us back down the dark decade of the 1930's with depression, protection, autarchy and war.

Politicians need to stick to their values , face up to the problems and protect democracy, free trade and human rights against a growing and sinister grouping seeking to hijack those freedoms.